Read the market.
Then take a position.
brand puts Polymarket, Kalshi and Limitless behind one book on Robinhood Chain. You fund with ETH or USDG, an analyst reads every market before you trade, and you take Yes or No on any outcome from a single balance.
Wallet in, funds in, first position open.
What the analyst reads, and what it cannot.
Yes or No, collateral, marks, auto-close.
What brand is #
A prediction market puts a price on an event: an election, a rates decision, a match, a crypto milestone. Every outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price is the probability. 62¢ means the market says 62%.
brand aggregates those markets from three venues into one book and lets you take Yes or No on any of them from one USD balance. That balance is funded with ETH or USDG on Robinhood Chain and paid out in USDG on Robinhood Chain.
Before you trade, the brief gives you a second read: a model's probability for the outcome next to the venue's price, what moves it, the dates that matter and the ways the read could be wrong. It is AI-assisted analysis, not a signal and not advice.
You never open an account at a venue, you never bridge, and you never hold venue shares. One wallet, one balance, three venues.
Quick start #
- 1Connect a walletHit Connect Wallet and approve in Robinhood Wallet, MetaMask, Rabby or any other injected Ethereum wallet. Robinhood Chain is added if your wallet doesn't know it, then one free signature is requested.
- 2Fund the balanceOpen Deposit, pick ETH or USDG, and send it on Robinhood Chain to the address shown, from the wallet you signed in with. The balance credits itself once the transfer confirms.
- 3Find a market and read the briefScan the dashboard, filter by venue, or press ⌘K and type. Every market page opens with its price history and the brief.
- 4Take a positionPick an outcome, take Yes or No, set your collateral, confirm. The position marks live from that second and you can close it whenever you want.
Connecting #
Any injected Ethereum wallet works: Robinhood Wallet, MetaMask, Rabby, or anything else that exposes the standard browser provider. Your wallet address is the account. Balance, positions and history all hang off it.
- 1Approve the connectionThe wallet shares your address with the site. Nothing else.
- 2Switch to Robinhood ChainThe app asks the wallet to switch to chain 4663. If the wallet has never seen it, it is added with the official RPC and the Blockscout explorer, so there is nothing to configure by hand.
- 3Sign one messageA plain text message with a one-time nonce. It is free, sends no transaction and cannot move funds. It only proves the address is yours.
We never ask for token approvals and never ask you to sign a transaction to sign in. The only on-chain activity is value you move yourself: deposits you send, and withdrawals sent to you.
Robinhood Chain #
Robinhood Chain is an Arbitrum Orbit L2. It is used for money movement only: deposits in, withdrawals out. Market data, the brief and your positions live on the book, marked against the venues.
Venues #
Three venues feed the book:
| Venue | Focus | Price used |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Global politics, macro, crypto, sports, culture. The deepest book in prediction markets. | Yes outcome price |
| Kalshi | US event contracts under CFTC regulation: rates, inflation, weather, awards. | Bid/ask midpoint |
| Limitless | Crypto-native markets built for fast expiries and quick turnover. | Order-book Yes price |
No venue accounts, no venue KYC, no second wallet. The book tracks each venue's live price and carries the exposure itself, so a Kalshi contract trades exactly like a Polymarket one: same ticket, same balance, same brief.
Odds & pricing #
The book is one merged snapshot of all three venues, refreshed about every 20 seconds and ranked by 24-hour volume. Every market in it is a binary Yes or No contract. If a venue is unreachable its markets drop out until it answers again; the other two keep trading.
Prices are not averaged or blended across venues. Each market keeps the price of the venue it came from, unedited, and a similar market on two venues shows up as two markets with two prices. The chart, the brief and your position all read the same number.
Cents are percent: an outcome at 62¢ carries a 62% implied chance. Yes quotes against the outcome's own price; No quotes against its complement (100¢ − Yes).
Every fill uses whichever is worse for you of the live price and its roughly five-minute average, then applies the spread. A price pushed on the venue a moment before you act never buys a better entry or a better exit.
Live data #
Odds, charts, balances and PnL stream to every open session, so nothing needs a refresh. If the stream drops, the app falls back to polling on its own. The status indicator in the sidebar reads Live or Connecting so you always know which mode you are in.
What the brief is #
Every market page opens with the brief: an AI analyst's read of that one market, written for someone about to take a Yes or No position. It loads on its own, right under the ticket.
| Field | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Model | The analyst's probability that Yes resolves true. |
| Venue yes | The venue's current Yes price, for comparison. |
| Edge | The gap between the two, in basis points. |
| Stance | Yes, No or Pass. |
| Confidence | Low, medium or high. |
| Summary | Two sentences on where the market stands. |
| Drivers | Three to five concrete things that move it. |
| Risks | Two to four ways the read could be wrong. |
| Key dates | Up to three scheduled events that matter. |
| Sources | The public sources the analyst checked. |
The analyst sees the market's title, venue, Yes and No prices, volume, liquidity, category and close date. It is told to anchor to the venue price and to move away from it only for a reason it states in a driver or a risk.
Edge & stance #
A model read of 58% against a venue price of 52¢ is +600 bps. A positive number means the analyst puts Yes above the market; a negative one means below.
The stance is Yes when the model sits meaningfully above the venue price, No when it sits meaningfully below, and Pass when the gap is small or the read is weak. Pass is a normal and common answer. It means the analyst has nothing to add to the price.
Edge here is a difference between two estimates, not a promise of profit. The venue price is the combined view of traders with money on the line; the brief is one model. When they disagree, the model is often the one that is wrong.
Cache & regenerate #
A brief is cached per market for 30 minutes and shared by everyone who opens that market in that window. After 30 minutes the next visit writes a new one.
Regenerate, at the foot of the brief, asks for a fresh read right away and replaces the cached copy. It is rate-limited, so if the analyst is busy, wait a minute and try again.
It has no inside information and no view of events beyond the public sources it checks. It does not know your positions or your balance. When a market turns on something it cannot know, it should say so and lower its confidence. The brief is a model's read of public information. It is not financial advice, and it never tells you to open or close anything.
Yes & No #
A position is one outcome and one side. Take Yes when you expect that outcome's odds to climb, No when you expect them to slide. There is no order book to work and no venue share to hold. You hold exposure to the odds, cash-settled against the live mark.
Positions are opened and closed, never bought and sold. Close at any time and the result settles to your balance at the mark on screen.
“Fed cuts rates in July” sits at 40¢. You take Yes with $100 of collateral at 5x. The odds print 48¢, a +20% move, so before the spread the position is up 20% × 5 = 100% of collateral, or +$100. Had the odds slid to 32¢ instead, the same arithmetic reads −$100: collateral gone, position auto-closed.
Collateral & sizing #
Collateral is the amount of your balance you commit to a position, and it is the most you can lose on it. You can enter it in USD or in ETH; either way it is held in USD. Minimum $1, maximum $100,000.
Leverage is optional. It scales size and every move in the odds by the same factor. The ticket offers 1x, 2x, 5x, 10x, 20x and 50x.
Each market caps leverage by its depth, the higher of its 24-hour volume and its liquidity: 5x below $100,000, 10x from $100,000, 20x from $500,000, 50x from $2,000,000. Outcomes priced under 5¢ or over 95¢ stay at 5x. Markets with less than $25,000 of depth are view-only, and each market caps total size relative to its depth. The ticket greys out anything above the cap before you confirm.
Downside stops at posted collateral. A position can never cost you more than you put into it, and balances never go negative. Higher leverage means less distance: at 50x a 2% move against you ends the position.
Marks & PnL #
Unrealized PnL reprices continuously against venue marks. Close a position and it settles to your balance at the current mark, less the spread, immediately.
Direction is +1 for Yes and −1 for No. The result is clamped at −collateral: losses never exceed what you posted.
Auto-close #
Every position carries an auto-close price, printed on the ticket before you confirm: the mark at which the loss equals your collateral. It is fixed at entry and never moves. A continuous sweep closes anything that reaches it. No margin calls, no negative balances, no clawbacks.
The price is held between 1¢ and 99¢. When that bound applies, the position closes there and whatever collateral is left returns to your balance.
Deposits #
Deposits are plain transfers on Robinhood Chain. Open Deposit, pick ETH or USDG, and send it to the treasury address the modal shows: scan the QR with any Ethereum wallet, or copy the address. Send it from the wallet you signed in with. That is how the transfer is attributed to you.
| Asset | Credited as |
|---|---|
| USDG | 1:1 in USD |
| ETH | USD at the Chainlink ETH/USD spot when the transfer confirms |
Detection is automatic. The chain is watched for transfers from your wallet to the treasury and your balance is credited once one confirms, usually within seconds. The modal walks through each step with a Blockscout link to the transaction.
Robinhood Chain only, chain 4663. USDG at the contract listed under Robinhood Chain, or native ETH. Tokens sent on another network, other tokens, or funds sent from a different wallet cannot be credited automatically.
Withdrawals #
Withdrawals are paid in USDG on Robinhood Chain, to any 0x address you enter. Leave the field blank and they go to the wallet you signed in with. The minimum is $1.
Your balance is debited, the transfer is sent, and it lands in your activity feed with its transaction hash. If the transfer fails, your balance is refunded. If its outcome is unclear, it is held for review against that hash rather than paid twice.
Double-check the address. A withdrawal sent to the wrong address on Robinhood Chain cannot be reversed. Withdrawals pause if the treasury is low on ETH for gas or USDG, and the modal says so.
Fees #
One cost: a 1.00% execution spread applied at entry and again at exit, shown on the ticket before you confirm. No deposit fee, no withdrawal fee, no funding rate, no settlement fee, no charge for the brief.
Gas for your own deposit is paid by you, in ETH, to the network. Gas for withdrawals is paid by brand.
$TOKEN #
$TOKEN is the platform token, an ERC-20 on Robinhood Chain. The token page carries the one official contract address along with live price, market cap and supply, read from the chain. Verify the contract there, or on Blockscout, before you trade it anywhere. Any other contract using the ticker is not $TOKEN.
Until the contract is deployed, the token page says so and shows no address. Holding $TOKEN is not required to use the platform. It gives you no claim on anyone's positions, no share of the treasury, no yield and no promise of value.
Risks & disclaimer #
Prediction markets move fast and against you. With leverage applied, the full loss of your collateral on a single position is an ordinary outcome, not an edge case. Only commit what you are prepared to lose entirely.
The brief can be wrong, stale or confidently mistaken. It is one model's reading of public information and has no track record you should rely on. A Yes or No stance is not a reason to trade.
The book depends on third-party venue data. Venues can halt, re-price, re-resolve or go offline, and outcomes can be disputed at the venue after the fact. Your balance is a ledger; the funds behind it sit in a treasury wallet on Robinhood Chain that the operator runs, so while they are there you carry chain and operator risk. Prediction markets are regulated differently in different jurisdictions and may not be available where you are; checking is your responsibility.
brand is not audited and not insured, and there is no guaranteed edge or return. Nothing here or in the brief is financial, legal or tax advice.
Keyboard #
The walkthrough opens on its own the first time you land in the app. Replay it any time from Settings or via “How it works” in the sidebar.
FAQ #
Do I need a Polymarket, Kalshi or Limitless account?
No. One balance covers all three venues: no venue sign-ups, no bridging, no venue KYC.
Which wallet should I use?
Any injected Ethereum wallet: Robinhood Wallet, MetaMask, Rabby and others. Robinhood Chain is added for you. Keep a little ETH on it for gas.
I sent funds and my balance didn't move.
Check that the transfer was on Robinhood Chain, from the wallet you signed in with, and has confirmed on Blockscout. ETH deposits also wait for a fresh Chainlink price. If all three hold and it still hasn't credited after a few minutes, reach out on X with the transaction hash.
Should I follow the brief?
No. It is a model's read, not advice. Use it to see what could move a market and what could go wrong, then make your own call. See what the brief cannot do.
What happens when a market resolves?
Odds drift toward 0¢ or 100¢ as resolution nears, and open positions mark against that drift like any other move. Positions can't be opened within half a cent of either end. Close before resolution to realize the result at the final mark.
What does it cost?
A 1.00% execution spread at entry and at exit, plus network gas on your own deposits. Nothing else: no deposit, withdrawal, funding or settlement fees.
Why did my auto-close price change?
It didn't. Auto-close is fixed at entry; what changes is how close the live mark sits to it, and the position row tracks that gap in real time.
Is my wallet safe?
Sign-in is a plain message signature with no token approvals, so there is no path to the funds sitting in your wallet. The only funds held are the ones you deposit.